Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R2 race run 101

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
George RussellMERC 41.2% 84.2% 88.5%
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 40.3% 84.3% 88.5%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 9.9% 58.9% 89.8%
Charles LeclercFERR 6.4% 46.5% 89.2%
Lando NorrisMCL 1.0% 10.9% 91.6%
Max VerstappenRB 0.7% 7.9% 88.2%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.5% 7.1% 92.3%
Isack HadjarRB 0.0% 0.1% 87.1%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.0% 36.8%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 33.4%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 64.6%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 8.2%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.2% 84.9%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 9.5%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 43.5%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%