Races Ratings Accuracy Bayesian ratings
fit 1123 · v3.1 · since 2022-01-01 · 2026 season
Each driver and each car is μ ± σ : μ is the skill estimate (higher = faster), σ how
unsure we are. Combined = driver + car — what drives projections. Units are
log-odds: a gap of 1.0 means finishing ahead about 73% of the time, before grid position. The car
gets what its two drivers share; a driver is rated on how he does against his teammate.
Rookies and new cars start wide and tighten as they race; a driver in his first 25
starts stays wide, so he is re-rated quickly; every winter car σ is re-inflated (cars are
redesigned, more so in a regulation-reset year like 2026) and driver σ bumped a little. Car/mechanical
DNFs don't count against a driver. The sim draws both skills from these distributions per replay.
Drivers (2026)
Driver Team Combined ↓ Driver Car Races Max Verstappen RB
+1.29 ± 0.36
+1.53 ± 0.25
-0.24 ± 0.25
101 Charles Leclerc FERR
+0.65 ± 0.34
+0.27 ± 0.23
+0.38 ± 0.25
97 Andrea Kimi Antonelli MERC
+0.57 ± 0.36
-0.06 ± 0.26
+0.63 ± 0.26
36 Lewis Hamilton FERR
+0.47 ± 0.33
+0.09 ± 0.23
+0.38 ± 0.25
102 George Russell MERC
+0.44 ± 0.35
-0.19 ± 0.24
+0.63 ± 0.26
100 Lando Norris MCL
+0.17 ± 0.33
+0.36 ± 0.24
-0.19 ± 0.23
101 Isack Hadjar RB
-0.34 ± 0.36
-0.10 ± 0.26
-0.24 ± 0.25
33 Oscar Piastri MCL
-0.53 ± 0.32
-0.33 ± 0.22
-0.19 ± 0.23
80 Liam Lawson VCARB
-1.25 ± 0.32
-0.56 ± 0.22
-0.70 ± 0.22
45 Arvid Lindblad VCARB
-1.55 ± 0.36
-0.85 ± 0.28
-0.70 ± 0.22
16 Daniel Ricciardo VCARB
-1.59 ± 0.37
-0.89 ± 0.30
-0.70 ± 0.22
43 Pierre Gasly ALPN
-1.63 ± 0.31
-0.57 ± 0.22
-1.07 ± 0.22
96 Nico Hulkenberg AUD
-1.78 ± 0.33
-0.64 ± 0.23
-1.14 ± 0.23
78 Yuki Tsunoda VCARB
-1.86 ± 0.35
-1.17 ± 0.27
-0.70 ± 0.22
84 Franco Colapinto ALPN
-2.03 ± 0.32
-0.96 ± 0.23
-1.07 ± 0.22
38 Jack Doohan ALPN
-2.10 ± 0.78
-1.03 ± 0.75
-1.07 ± 0.22
5 Gabriel Bortoleto AUD
-2.19 ± 0.33
-1.05 ± 0.24
-1.14 ± 0.23
34 Oliver Bearman HAAS
-2.23 ± 0.31
-0.54 ± 0.22
-1.69 ± 0.22
37 Guanyu Zhou SAUB
-2.31 ± 0.38
-1.17 ± 0.30
-1.14 ± 0.23
61 Mick Schumacher HAAS
-2.58 ± 0.78
-0.89 ± 0.75
-1.69 ± 0.22
20 Ryo Hirakawa HAAS
-2.60 ± 0.78
-0.91 ± 0.75
-1.69 ± 0.22
0 Esteban Ocon HAAS
-2.62 ± 0.31
-0.93 ± 0.22
-1.69 ± 0.22
95 Carlos Sainz Jr WILL
-2.81 ± 0.33
-0.33 ± 0.23
-2.48 ± 0.24
92 Alexander Albon WILL
-3.00 ± 0.34
-0.52 ± 0.24
-2.48 ± 0.24
84 Fernando Alonso AM
-3.05 ± 0.39
-0.06 ± 0.24
-2.99 ± 0.30
90 Kevin Magnussen HAAS
-3.09 ± 0.37
-1.39 ± 0.30
-1.69 ± 0.22
57 Sebastian Vettel AM
-3.12 ± 0.81
-0.13 ± 0.75
-2.99 ± 0.30
19 Nicholas Latifi WILL
-3.63 ± 0.79
-1.15 ± 0.75
-2.48 ± 0.24
21 Lance Stroll AM
-3.86 ± 0.41
-0.87 ± 0.28
-2.99 ± 0.30
85 Felipe Drugovich AM
-3.90 ± 0.81
-0.91 ± 0.75
-2.99 ± 0.30
0 Sergio Perez CAD
-3.94 ± 0.39
-1.05 ± 0.25
-2.89 ± 0.30
72 Logan Sargeant WILL
-3.99 ± 0.38
-1.52 ± 0.30
-2.48 ± 0.24
28 Valtteri Bottas CAD
-4.23 ± 0.40
-1.33 ± 0.25
-2.89 ± 0.30
68
Cars (2026)
Constructor Car μ ± σ Races MERC Mercedes
+0.63 ± 0.26
200 FERR Ferrari
+0.38 ± 0.25
195 MCL McLaren
-0.19 ± 0.23
201 RB Red Bull Racing
-0.24 ± 0.25
198 VCARB Alphatauri
-0.70 ± 0.22
192 ALPN Alpine F1 Team
-1.07 ± 0.22
186 AUD Audi F1 Team
-1.14 ± 0.23
188 SAUB Alfa Romeo Racing
-1.14 ± 0.23
188 HAAS Haas F1 Team
-1.69 ± 0.22
194 WILL Williams
-2.48 ± 0.24
173 CAD Cadillac
-2.89 ± 0.30
21 AM Aston Martin F1 Team
-2.99 ± 0.30
179