Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R3 race run 102

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
George RussellMERC 43.6% 86.0% 88.7%
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 42.8% 86.0% 88.6%
Charles LeclercFERR 7.5% 57.9% 89.3%
Oscar PiastriMCL 2.9% 30.0% 93.2%
Lando NorrisMCL 1.8% 22.4% 91.2%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 1.4% 15.8% 89.2%
Max VerstappenRB 0.1% 1.3% 88.6%
Isack HadjarRB 0.0% 0.2% 87.5%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.0% 32.1%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 13.1%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.2% 84.7%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 64.4%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 62.4%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 16.4%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%