Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R5 race run 104

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
George RussellMERC 64.2% 86.6% 87.3%
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 20.6% 80.2% 88.8%
Lando NorrisMCL 7.8% 56.5% 91.7%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 2.9% 27.5% 88.0%
Max VerstappenRB 2.7% 28.1% 87.5%
Oscar PiastriMCL 1.3% 14.5% 92.5%
Charles LeclercFERR 0.5% 6.2% 88.8%
Isack HadjarRB 0.0% 0.4% 86.9%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.0% 61.8%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 59.6%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 2.6%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.0% 28.2%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 74.7%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 14.9%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 39.9%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%