Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R6 race run 105

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 46.2% 84.0% 88.2%
Max VerstappenRB 32.6% 78.7% 88.6%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 10.5% 54.9% 89.4%
Charles LeclercFERR 6.7% 44.2% 89.0%
George RussellMERC 3.3% 31.6% 87.5%
Lando NorrisMCL 0.3% 3.1% 91.7%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.2% 2.0% 92.7%
Isack HadjarRB 0.1% 1.4% 87.0%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.1% 83.7%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.0% 84.0%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 23.1%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 21.3%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 16.0%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 18.4%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 5.4%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 30.4%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%