Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R8 race run 107

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
George RussellMERC 60.2% 85.8% 87.3%
Charles LeclercFERR 20.7% 75.2% 89.2%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 8.0% 51.3% 89.1%
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 5.6% 44.1% 88.5%
Max VerstappenRB 4.6% 32.1% 87.1%
Lando NorrisMCL 0.8% 9.4% 91.3%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.1% 1.7% 92.6%
Isack HadjarRB 0.0% 0.2% 86.7%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.1% 83.5%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 6.0%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 25.4%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.0% 67.2%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 63.2%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 26.7%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 11.8%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%