Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R9 race run 108

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 48.4% 62.5% -14.0% -30% 84.5% 88.3%
Charles LeclercFERR 26.1% 8.2% +17.9% +187% 9.3% 77.0% 89.5%
George RussellMERC 12.8% 10.0% +2.8% +15% 0.9% 61.7% 87.9%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 10.0% 12.9% -2.9% -30% 52.0% 89.5%
Max VerstappenRB 1.5% 1.8% -0.3% -25% 12.5% 87.6%
Lando NorrisMCL 1.1% 1.1% -0.1% -14% 9.9% 91.5%
Isack HadjarRB 0.1% 0.9% -0.8% -88% 1.4% 87.1%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.1% 1.1% -1.0% -94% 1.0% 92.7%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.4% -0.4% -100% 0.0% 82.5%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 1.1%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -100% 0.0% 26.6%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 1.1%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 5.1%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -100% 0.0% 21.9%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.4% -0.4% -100% 0.0% 76.4%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -100% 0.0% 40.3%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -100% 0.0% 30.2%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%