Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 68.8% | – | – | – | – | 89.2% | – | 89.8% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 17.5% | – | – | – | – | 77.5% | – | 88.6% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 4.5% | – | – | – | – | 40.1% | – | 88.3% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 4.4% | – | – | – | – | 41.7% | – | 92.0% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 19.8% | – | 90.7% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 14.4% | – | 86.7% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 7.1% | – | 86.8% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 4.1% | – | 82.5% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.5% | – | 72.8% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 53.1% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 27.4% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 51.6% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 14.5% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 27.7% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 6.8% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 4.8% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.4% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 6.7% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.4% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 23.2% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 0.9% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |