Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | MERC | 62.5% | – | – | – | – | 87.3% | – | 88.2% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 20.3% | – | – | – | – | 76.2% | – | 88.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 7.4% | – | – | – | – | 50.5% | – | 90.6% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 2.6% | – | – | – | – | 22.5% | – | 88.2% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 2.6% | – | – | – | – | 21.5% | – | 86.5% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 2.6% | – | – | – | – | 23.0% | – | 92.1% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 7.8% | – | 85.4% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 6.3% | – | 84.6% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 63.4% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 43.7% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 46.0% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 44.7% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 25.1% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 8.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 13.7% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 4.7% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 26.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 10.7% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 4.9% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.2% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.6% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.4% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |