Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 60.4% | – | – | – | – | 88.4% | – | 89.5% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 25.2% | – | – | – | – | 80.3% | – | 88.2% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 6.7% | – | – | – | – | 52.4% | – | 87.3% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 4.0% | – | – | – | – | 35.6% | – | 87.9% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 14.3% | – | 88.1% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 14.2% | – | 88.0% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 5.5% | – | 88.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 5.5% | – | 88.1% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 62.5% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 62.6% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 23.1% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 24.9% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 9.2% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 33.1% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 7.8% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 22.1% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 25.5% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 14.8% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 3.3% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.5% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.3% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.5% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |