Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | MERC | 66.4% | – | – | – | – | 88.5% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 18.0% | – | – | – | – | 74.5% | – | 87.3% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 7.2% | – | – | – | – | 56.2% | – | 90.2% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 3.3% | – | – | – | – | 30.8% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 3.2% | – | – | – | – | 30.1% | – | 91.9% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 8.4% | – | 87.5% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | 88.8% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 2.7% | – | 81.0% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.9% | – | 75.9% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 59.7% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 46.4% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 6.7% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 22.4% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 14.2% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 6.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 3.6% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.3% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 24.9% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 28.6% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.6% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.1% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.5% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |