Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 65.1% | 62.5% | +2.7% | -6% | – | 88.8% | – | 89.5% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 19.3% | 8.2% | +11.1% | +113% | 5.6% | 75.5% | – | 86.6% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 7.1% | 12.9% | -5.8% | -50% | – | 52.9% | – | 87.4% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 3.6% | 10.0% | -6.4% | -67% | – | 34.5% | – | 89.6% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 1.5% | 1.8% | -0.3% | -25% | – | 14.3% | – | 88.3% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.5% | 0.9% | +0.6% | +49% | 0.2% | 14.2% | – | 88.0% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 1.3% | 1.1% | +0.1% | +2% | 0.0% | 12.4% | – | 90.1% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.3% | 1.1% | -0.8% | -77% | – | 3.5% | – | 85.6% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.2% | -72% | – | 0.9% | – | 61.7% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% | -80% | – | 1.4% | – | 65.3% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -85% | – | 0.1% | – | 21.1% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -85% | – | 0.4% | – | 38.3% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -60% | – | 0.1% | – | 8.6% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -90% | – | 0.5% | – | 37.5% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -60% | – | 0.1% | – | 7.4% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -85% | – | 0.2% | – | 26.4% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.1% | – | 13.1% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | – | 3.0% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 7.6% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | – | 1.9% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | – | 1.6% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | – | 1.4% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |