Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R9 race run 1131

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 65.1% 62.5% +2.7% -6% – 88.8% – 89.5% –
Charles LeclercFERR 19.3% 8.2% +11.1% +113% 5.6% 75.5% – 86.6% –
Lewis HamiltonFERR 7.1% 12.9% -5.8% -50% – 52.9% – 87.4% –
George RussellMERC 3.6% 10.0% -6.4% -67% – 34.5% – 89.6% –
Max VerstappenRB 1.5% 1.8% -0.3% -25% – 14.3% – 88.3% –
Isack HadjarRB 1.5% 0.9% +0.6% +49% 0.2% 14.2% – 88.0% –
Lando NorrisMCL 1.3% 1.1% +0.1% +2% 0.0% 12.4% – 90.1% –
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.3% 1.1% -0.8% -77% – 3.5% – 85.6% –
Liam LawsonVCARB 0.1% 0.4% -0.2% -72% – 0.9% – 61.7% –
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.1% 0.4% -0.3% -80% – 1.4% – 65.3% –
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -85% – 0.1% – 21.1% –
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -85% – 0.4% – 38.3% –
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -60% – 0.1% – 8.6% –
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% -90% – 0.5% – 37.5% –
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -60% – 0.1% – 7.4% –
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -85% – 0.2% – 26.4% –
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% – 0.1% – 13.1% –
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% – 0.0% – 3.0% –
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% – – – – 0.1% – 7.6% –
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% – 0.0% – 1.9% –
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% – 0.0% – 1.6% –
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -100% – 0.0% – 1.4% –
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 300.0% – 1000.0% –