Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | MCL | 64.6% | – | – | – | – | 90.4% | – | 91.3% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 20.7% | – | – | – | – | 76.8% | – | 87.3% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 6.3% | – | – | – | – | 48.0% | – | 90.2% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 3.8% | – | – | – | – | 37.5% | – | 92.2% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 19.3% | – | 87.5% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 12.9% | – | 88.8% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 8.5% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 3.4% | – | 84.0% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 65.5% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 51.6% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 52.8% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 11.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 3.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 8.8% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 25.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 18.3% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 4.5% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 36.6% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 7.2% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 0.8% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 0.7% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.9% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |