Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | MERC | 43.9% | – | – | – | – | 80.4% | – | 88.9% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 20.6% | – | – | – | – | 64.9% | – | 87.9% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 13.4% | – | – | – | – | 49.8% | – | 82.9% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 9.2% | – | – | – | – | 40.9% | – | 88.6% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 8.8% | – | – | – | – | 38.5% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 10.4% | – | 90.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 6.6% | – | 88.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.4% | – | 71.5% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.3% | – | 70.1% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.7% | – | 62.3% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 32.1% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 34.4% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 18.9% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 41.5% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 15.2% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 12.9% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 13.6% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.1% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.4% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.3% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.3% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |