Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | MCL | 58.7% | – | – | – | – | 88.9% | – | 90.7% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 19.8% | – | – | – | – | 74.5% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 12.1% | – | – | – | – | 63.0% | – | 88.8% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 4.0% | – | – | – | – | 30.0% | – | 87.9% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 20.2% | – | 86.9% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 12.4% | – | 88.1% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 4.8% | – | 88.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.8% | – | 82.0% | – |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 58.3% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 58.2% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 46.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 20.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 7.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 27.2% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 33.7% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 8.2% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 1.8% | – |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.4% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 4.0% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 23.5% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 2.0% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | – | 3.8% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |