Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 70.3% | 55.2% | +15.0% | +5% | 5.4% | 88.0% | 88.2% | 88.4% | 94.1% |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 15.0% | 41.4% | -26.4% | -68% | – | 73.5% | 58.3% | 86.5% | 93.3% |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 7.1% | 16.6% | -9.5% | -64% | – | 56.2% | 69.2% | 89.7% | 94.1% |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 3.6% | 26.7% | -23.1% | -88% | – | 37.0% | 38.5% | 87.9% | 92.3% |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 1.8% | 56.4% | -54.7% | -97% | – | 18.9% | 18.2% | 90.5% | 90.9% |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.9% | 24.6% | -23.8% | -97% | – | 8.7% | 12.5% | 90.5% | 90.9% |
| George Russell | MERC | 0.8% | 14.5% | -13.7% | -95% | – | 9.4% | 26.7% | 87.8% | 92.3% |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.3% | 17.4% | -17.1% | -98% | – | 4.6% | 33.3% | 84.2% | 92.3% |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.1% | 12.3% | -12.2% | -100% | – | 1.2% | 2.4% | 63.7% | 77.8% |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | 6.6% | -6.6% | -99% | – | 0.8% | 2.0% | 56.9% | 66.7% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | 49.0% | -48.9% | -100% | – | 0.5% | 1.0% | 48.7% | 59.2% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.0% | 12.0% | -12.0% | -100% | – | 0.2% | 0.1% | 22.6% | 20.0% |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | 19.5% | -19.5% | -100% | – | 0.2% | 0.5% | 22.1% | 38.5% |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | 8.7% | -8.6% | -100% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 5.3% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -60% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | 9.6% | -9.6% | -100% | – | 0.2% | 0.1% | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | 57.7% | -57.7% | -100% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 18.2% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | 19.5% | -19.5% | -100% | – | 0.2% | 0.2% | 18.5% | 30.8% |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.0% | 24.0% | -24.0% | -100% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | 471.9% | 300.0% | 351.6% | 1000.0% | 1096.2% |