Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 71.8% | 57.2% | +14.5% | +3% | 3.4% | 88.5% | 85.7% | 88.8% | 93.3% |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 16.1% | 14.9% | +1.1% | -12% | – | 77.2% | 75.0% | 86.9% | 92.3% |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 5.7% | 12.6% | -7.0% | -63% | – | 55.7% | 65.5% | 87.6% | 90.9% |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 3.5% | 7.5% | -4.0% | -62% | – | 38.9% | 47.6% | 90.5% | 90.9% |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 1.6% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -60% | – | 20.5% | 36.4% | 90.9% | 90.0% |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 0.8% | 1.6% | -0.8% | -59% | – | 9.1% | 20.0% | 90.5% | 89.5% |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -40% | – | 2.5% | 1.0% | 73.4% | 71.4% |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -60% | – | 2.3% | 1.0% | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| George Russell | MERC | 0.1% | 0.8% | -0.7% | -92% | – | 1.1% | 11.1% | 57.5% | 73.7% |
| Arvid Lindblad | VCARB | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -60% | – | 1.6% | 0.5% | 62.1% | 62.3% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.0% | -60% | – | 0.7% | 0.2% | 49.2% | 41.7% |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -40% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -80% | – | 0.3% | 0.2% | 35.4% | 40.0% |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.0% | 0.8% | -0.8% | -98% | – | 0.4% | 11.1% | 30.0% | 71.4% |
| Sergio Perez | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -60% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.1% | 0.1% | 14.0% | 18.2% |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 14.3% |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -100% | – | 0.3% | 0.2% | 22.8% | 33.3% |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 6.0% | – |
| Valtteri Bottas | CAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% | -100% | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 7.7% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -100% | – | 0.2% | 0.1% | 17.2% | 25.0% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 300.0% | 356.0% | 1000.0% | 1092.7% |