Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 20.8% | – | – | – | – | 49.7% | – | 87.0% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 18.7% | – | – | – | – | 45.3% | – | 87.0% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 16.3% | – | – | – | – | 42.4% | – | 85.4% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 12.5% | – | – | – | – | 36.7% | – | 82.8% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 8.6% | – | – | – | – | 28.3% | – | 75.1% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 7.2% | – | – | – | – | 24.8% | – | 74.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 4.9% | – | – | – | – | 17.1% | – | 60.8% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 4.3% | – | – | – | – | 17.2% | – | 66.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 1.7% | – | – | – | – | 8.1% | – | 48.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 5.1% | – | 42.2% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.0% | – | 39.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.0% | – | 35.8% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | 36.4% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 4.0% | – | 38.0% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.6% | – | 30.3% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 24.3% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 26.9% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 22.0% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 20.7% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 16.9% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |