Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 18.6% | – | – | – | – | 45.9% | – | 87.0% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 18.4% | – | – | – | – | 46.1% | – | 87.2% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 17.2% | – | – | – | – | 44.9% | – | 87.5% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 12.3% | – | – | – | – | 36.6% | – | 85.3% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 11.2% | – | – | – | – | 34.8% | – | 81.1% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 9.8% | – | – | – | – | 30.4% | – | 78.2% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 3.6% | – | – | – | – | 15.2% | – | 66.5% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 7.8% | – | 49.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.7% | – | – | – | – | 7.6% | – | 53.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 7.3% | – | 54.1% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.0% | – | 47.7% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.8% | – | 48.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.2% | – | 36.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.4% | – | 31.5% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.2% | – | 29.2% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.2% | – | 29.3% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 13.8% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 9.9% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 12.3% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 11.8% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |