Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 29.0% | – | – | – | – | 59.4% | – | 90.3% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 15.4% | – | – | – | – | 42.4% | – | 87.7% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 13.4% | – | – | – | – | 38.3% | – | 81.3% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 12.2% | – | – | – | – | 37.9% | – | 84.6% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 9.5% | – | – | – | – | 32.9% | – | 82.6% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 6.3% | – | – | – | – | 23.5% | – | 76.7% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 5.6% | – | – | – | – | 21.4% | – | 72.7% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 2.3% | – | – | – | – | 9.5% | – | 53.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 2.1% | – | – | – | – | 9.7% | – | 58.8% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 7.4% | – | 54.9% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.9% | – | 41.5% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.7% | – | 34.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.2% | – | 29.6% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 29.3% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.5% | – | 32.5% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 27.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 18.3% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 22.1% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 12.6% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 9.7% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |