Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 21.3% | – | – | – | – | 48.3% | – | 83.0% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 19.4% | – | – | – | – | 47.4% | – | 86.6% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 16.1% | – | – | – | – | 42.7% | – | 84.9% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 11.8% | – | – | – | – | 35.2% | – | 82.5% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 8.0% | – | – | – | – | 27.3% | – | 79.5% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 7.1% | – | – | – | – | 26.2% | – | 73.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 6.2% | – | – | – | – | 21.4% | – | 72.8% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 2.6% | – | – | – | – | 11.0% | – | 56.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 9.2% | – | 54.1% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 7.4% | – | 49.5% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 3.9% | – | 37.4% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.9% | – | 37.2% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 32.9% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 34.2% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.1% | – | 32.3% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 33.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 20.6% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 17.3% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 15.8% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 17.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |