Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 27.2% | – | – | – | – | 56.7% | – | 89.2% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 15.5% | – | – | – | – | 41.6% | – | 85.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 14.4% | – | – | – | – | 41.0% | – | 83.9% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 13.2% | – | – | – | – | 37.4% | – | 79.5% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 8.4% | – | – | – | – | 28.3% | – | 77.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 6.5% | – | – | – | – | 25.4% | – | 72.3% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 4.0% | – | – | – | – | 15.0% | – | 60.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 3.2% | – | – | – | – | 13.9% | – | 66.7% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 2.2% | – | – | – | – | 10.0% | – | 57.5% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 7.6% | – | 46.3% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.9% | – | 38.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.8% | – | 35.9% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.1% | – | 39.0% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.2% | – | 35.3% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.0% | – | 28.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 2.0% | – | 26.8% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.7% | – | 28.1% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 20.9% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 13.9% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 15.7% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |