Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 28.8% | – | – | – | – | 57.7% | – | 89.3% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 16.1% | – | – | – | – | 41.9% | – | 86.7% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 11.0% | – | – | – | – | 33.2% | – | 82.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 10.6% | – | – | – | – | 32.5% | – | 76.8% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 10.1% | – | – | – | – | 33.4% | – | 80.8% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 7.1% | – | – | – | – | 23.9% | – | 73.2% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 3.7% | – | – | – | – | 15.0% | – | 60.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 3.5% | – | – | – | – | 14.9% | – | 59.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 2.8% | – | – | – | – | 13.1% | – | 63.1% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 2.2% | – | – | – | – | 9.8% | – | 55.1% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 7.4% | – | 49.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.8% | – | 37.9% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 32.6% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 33.6% | – |
| Jack Doohan | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1.7% | – | 23.2% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 23.4% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 23.7% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 23.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 19.7% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 7.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |