Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 27.0% | – | – | – | – | 56.8% | – | 89.6% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 20.2% | – | – | – | – | 48.4% | – | 87.1% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 16.3% | – | – | – | – | 44.1% | – | 85.3% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 11.0% | – | – | – | – | 35.0% | – | 83.7% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 4.1% | – | – | – | – | 15.9% | – | 61.8% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.9% | – | – | – | – | 18.0% | – | 66.0% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 3.9% | – | – | – | – | 15.8% | – | 59.7% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 3.8% | – | – | – | – | 16.0% | – | 64.8% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 3.1% | – | – | – | – | 13.6% | – | 63.8% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 2.0% | – | – | – | – | 9.6% | – | 56.2% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 7.1% | – | 48.2% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.1% | – | 45.9% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 31.4% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.7% | – | 29.9% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.5% | – | 28.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 23.2% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 23.1% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 22.6% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 14.6% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 14.4% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |