Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 21.2% | – | – | – | – | 48.4% | – | 82.8% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 19.4% | – | – | – | – | 47.4% | – | 87.4% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 18.2% | – | – | – | – | 46.7% | – | 86.7% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 13.5% | – | – | – | – | 39.7% | – | 83.5% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 9.1% | – | – | – | – | 29.6% | – | 77.6% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.7% | – | – | – | – | 14.9% | – | 62.7% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 11.8% | – | 59.5% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 2.5% | – | – | – | – | 12.1% | – | 60.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 2.1% | – | – | – | – | 9.0% | – | 49.4% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 1.7% | – | – | – | – | 8.2% | – | 54.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.4% | – | 45.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.6% | – | 44.6% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.9% | – | 44.1% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 4.8% | – | 41.5% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.6% | – | 39.7% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 22.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.3% | – | 20.2% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 15.8% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 11.2% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 10.2% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |