Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 22.4% | – | – | – | – | 52.5% | – | 89.8% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 18.2% | – | – | – | – | 48.4% | – | 88.5% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 16.0% | – | – | – | – | 42.9% | – | 88.5% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 12.9% | – | – | – | – | 38.1% | – | 86.4% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 11.8% | – | – | – | – | 36.5% | – | 83.6% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 7.5% | – | – | – | – | 26.2% | – | 78.3% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 5.5% | – | – | – | – | 20.7% | – | 73.8% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.1% | – | 48.3% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.0% | – | – | – | – | 5.7% | – | 50.8% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | 46.2% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | 43.6% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.2% | – | 39.6% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.9% | – | 37.2% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 36.6% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 29.1% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 30.9% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 23.6% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 16.1% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 9.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |