Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 23.5% | – | – | – | – | 52.2% | – | 88.9% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 20.2% | – | – | – | – | 47.7% | – | 86.7% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 12.5% | – | – | – | – | 36.2% | – | 83.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 11.2% | – | – | – | – | 34.5% | – | 79.5% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 8.4% | – | – | – | – | 27.3% | – | 74.2% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 6.7% | – | – | – | – | 23.1% | – | 72.5% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 6.0% | – | – | – | – | 22.7% | – | 76.0% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.4% | – | – | – | – | 14.1% | – | 62.3% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 2.5% | – | – | – | – | 10.2% | – | 52.0% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 8.4% | – | 52.4% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.2% | – | 46.0% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.8% | – | 38.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 2.9% | – | 34.9% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 33.6% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.3% | – | 27.8% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.0% | – | 26.4% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 22.6% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 22.0% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | 13.7% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 7.5% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |