Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 19.9% | – | – | – | – | 46.2% | – | 82.4% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 18.0% | – | – | – | – | 45.2% | – | 87.3% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 14.1% | – | – | – | – | 38.3% | – | 81.6% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 13.1% | – | – | – | – | 37.8% | – | 83.3% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 11.2% | – | – | – | – | 33.9% | – | 82.1% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 10.3% | – | – | – | – | 33.3% | – | 80.8% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 3.8% | – | – | – | – | 14.2% | – | 61.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 2.4% | – | – | – | – | 10.6% | – | 57.2% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 8.9% | – | 51.6% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.3% | – | 45.9% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 6.1% | – | 44.1% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.2% | – | 39.3% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 33.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.6% | – | 31.4% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 21.5% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 26.6% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 26.8% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 19.3% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 21.5% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 22.4% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |