Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 27.8% | – | – | – | – | 58.0% | – | 89.8% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 15.8% | – | – | – | – | 42.1% | – | 86.0% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 12.2% | – | – | – | – | 36.2% | – | 83.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 12.1% | – | – | – | – | 37.2% | – | 84.9% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 10.9% | – | – | – | – | 35.0% | – | 80.4% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 9.7% | – | – | – | – | 30.9% | – | 77.9% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 2.6% | – | – | – | – | 11.6% | – | 60.3% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 2.5% | – | – | – | – | 12.7% | – | 60.6% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 8.8% | – | 51.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.0% | – | – | – | – | 5.7% | – | 46.1% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.6% | – | 40.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.0% | – | 39.6% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.4% | – | 37.9% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.5% | – | 34.1% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 28.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 21.8% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 23.4% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 22.5% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | 23.2% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 7.5% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |