Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | MCL | 20.0% | – | – | – | – | 48.8% | – | 88.8% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 18.6% | – | – | – | – | 48.1% | – | 88.0% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 18.2% | – | – | – | – | 45.7% | – | 82.3% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 17.1% | – | – | – | – | 45.3% | – | 87.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 9.8% | – | – | – | – | 31.4% | – | 81.4% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 5.3% | – | – | – | – | 20.6% | – | 64.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 12.6% | – | 62.3% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.9% | – | 48.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 7.0% | – | 51.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.5% | – | 50.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.0% | – | 44.2% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 6.1% | – | 45.8% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.3% | – | 42.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.5% | – | 40.5% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 22.7% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 20.2% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 24.6% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 24.9% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 15.9% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | 14.0% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |