Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 27.0% | – | – | – | – | 55.7% | – | 85.3% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 18.2% | – | – | – | – | 46.6% | – | 87.7% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 14.1% | – | – | – | – | 40.9% | – | 86.6% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 14.0% | – | – | – | – | 40.0% | – | 85.4% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 9.6% | – | – | – | – | 31.6% | – | 82.3% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.9% | – | – | – | – | 17.6% | – | 67.3% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 3.0% | – | – | – | – | 13.2% | – | 63.9% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 12.9% | – | 64.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 2.0% | – | – | – | – | 10.3% | – | 55.9% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 8.4% | – | 54.3% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.5% | – | 44.9% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.3% | – | 40.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.0% | – | 39.1% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.7% | – | 36.8% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 17.6% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 23.0% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 24.1% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 17.5% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 12.4% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 11.3% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |