Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 21.8% | – | – | – | – | 50.7% | – | 87.6% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 19.1% | – | – | – | – | 46.9% | – | 86.6% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 16.4% | – | – | – | – | 43.2% | – | 87.0% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 10.5% | – | – | – | – | 33.8% | – | 81.5% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 10.3% | – | – | – | – | 31.5% | – | 77.9% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 8.8% | – | – | – | – | 29.0% | – | 78.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 3.1% | – | – | – | – | 13.9% | – | 64.5% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 2.2% | – | – | – | – | 10.1% | – | 56.2% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 2.1% | – | – | – | – | 9.0% | – | 51.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 7.2% | – | 49.2% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 7.0% | – | 50.3% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | 41.7% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.0% | – | 33.0% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.1% | – | 32.5% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.3% | – | 29.1% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 18.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 20.8% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 23.2% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 16.2% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 14.4% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |