Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 30.5% | – | – | – | – | 60.7% | – | 90.8% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 15.8% | – | – | – | – | 43.4% | – | 88.3% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 13.6% | – | – | – | – | 39.1% | – | 82.2% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 12.2% | – | – | – | – | 38.5% | – | 85.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 9.4% | – | – | – | – | 33.0% | – | 82.7% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 5.5% | – | – | – | – | 21.4% | – | 72.8% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 4.0% | – | – | – | – | 16.3% | – | 71.3% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 9.0% | – | 55.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.7% | – | – | – | – | 8.5% | – | 56.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 7.0% | – | 52.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 7.5% | – | 53.2% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 5.3% | – | 48.3% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.1% | – | 35.4% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.2% | – | 35.4% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.0% | – | 30.2% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 22.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | – | 4.8% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 9.9% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 9.8% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 12.5% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |