Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 31.4% | – | – | – | – | 58.8% | – | 89.0% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 11.9% | – | – | – | – | 35.7% | – | 80.2% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 10.3% | – | – | – | – | 30.2% | – | 73.7% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 9.7% | – | – | – | – | 28.6% | – | 69.3% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 7.4% | – | – | – | – | 25.2% | – | 75.2% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 5.5% | – | – | – | – | 19.6% | – | 67.3% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 5.1% | – | – | – | – | 18.7% | – | 68.2% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 4.8% | – | – | – | – | 18.9% | – | 64.0% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 4.2% | – | – | – | – | 16.0% | – | 62.4% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 3.4% | – | – | – | – | 14.6% | – | 62.3% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.7% | – | – | – | – | 7.8% | – | 49.7% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 7.1% | – | 44.2% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 4.7% | – | 37.7% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | 32.1% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | 32.8% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.9% | – | 29.2% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.7% | – | 19.8% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 17.3% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 15.2% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 10.3% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |