Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 25.1% | – | – | – | – | 55.1% | – | 90.1% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 21.0% | – | – | – | – | 50.1% | – | 88.1% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 12.1% | – | – | – | – | 37.3% | – | 84.7% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 9.7% | – | – | – | – | 31.0% | – | 81.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 8.4% | – | – | – | – | 27.2% | – | 76.4% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 7.8% | – | – | – | – | 27.0% | – | 76.9% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 7.4% | – | – | – | – | 28.8% | – | 81.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 11.4% | – | 61.8% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 7.4% | – | 52.4% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.2% | – | 49.2% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.0% | – | – | – | – | 5.5% | – | 50.1% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.1% | – | 36.8% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 28.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.5% | – | 33.3% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 27.4% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 24.4% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 16.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 20.0% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | 13.5% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 7.2% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |