Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 26.6% | – | – | – | – | 56.6% | – | 89.8% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 15.1% | – | – | – | – | 41.0% | – | 81.3% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 14.8% | – | – | – | – | 40.3% | – | 87.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 11.7% | – | – | – | – | 35.1% | – | 84.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 10.5% | – | – | – | – | 33.9% | – | 80.7% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 6.9% | – | – | – | – | 24.8% | – | 79.0% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 4.5% | – | – | – | – | 18.9% | – | 69.8% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 3.1% | – | – | – | – | 13.6% | – | 65.0% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 8.5% | – | 52.1% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 7.8% | – | 53.0% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 6.8% | – | 49.6% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.4% | – | 38.0% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 2.7% | – | 34.6% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 19.3% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.6% | – | 25.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.3% | – | 23.5% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.1% | – | 23.6% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 17.1% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 10.7% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 16.2% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |