Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 18.7% | – | – | – | – | 44.8% | – | 82.1% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 17.0% | – | – | – | – | 43.5% | – | 86.8% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 15.8% | – | – | – | – | 41.6% | – | 82.7% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 14.0% | – | – | – | – | 39.3% | – | 84.3% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 12.1% | – | – | – | – | 34.8% | – | 82.6% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 6.0% | – | – | – | – | 22.8% | – | 75.1% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 6.0% | – | – | – | – | 20.9% | – | 70.3% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 3.0% | – | – | – | – | 12.2% | – | 59.9% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 7.0% | – | 49.0% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.7% | – | 47.8% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.3% | – | – | – | – | 6.6% | – | 50.3% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.5% | – | 44.2% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 4.7% | – | 41.5% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 34.6% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.2% | – | 25.5% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 24.4% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 23.5% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 17.0% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 8.0% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 10.6% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |