Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | MCL | 20.8% | – | – | – | – | 48.1% | – | 86.9% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 18.7% | – | – | – | – | 44.4% | – | 80.3% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 15.2% | – | – | – | – | 38.7% | – | 78.1% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 12.5% | – | – | – | – | 35.5% | – | 81.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 10.8% | – | – | – | – | 32.1% | – | 79.0% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 4.3% | – | – | – | – | 17.0% | – | 63.2% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 3.1% | – | – | – | – | 13.5% | – | 60.0% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 3.0% | – | – | – | – | 12.9% | – | 59.0% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 2.8% | – | – | – | – | 11.8% | – | 55.5% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 2.1% | – | – | – | – | 10.4% | – | 53.2% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 1.5% | – | – | – | – | 7.0% | – | 45.0% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 6.9% | – | 42.9% | – |
| Max Verstappen | RB | 1.0% | – | – | – | – | 5.4% | – | 41.9% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | 35.5% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | 33.2% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 30.3% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 23.6% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.2% | – | 17.7% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 15.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 17.8% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |