Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 28.3% | – | – | – | – | 57.9% | – | 89.6% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 20.6% | – | – | – | – | 49.2% | – | 87.9% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 13.8% | – | – | – | – | 40.1% | – | 83.9% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 9.8% | – | – | – | – | 33.0% | – | 80.3% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 7.3% | – | – | – | – | 25.3% | – | 68.6% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 6.5% | – | – | – | – | 22.7% | – | 71.1% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.1% | – | – | – | – | 14.1% | – | 60.5% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 2.5% | – | – | – | – | 11.1% | – | 57.1% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 1.8% | – | – | – | – | 9.2% | – | 52.6% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 7.2% | – | 50.2% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.4% | – | 42.9% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.9% | – | – | – | – | 5.0% | – | 39.9% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | 40.1% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 0.6% | – | – | – | – | 3.7% | – | 35.4% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 30.9% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 3.2% | – | 32.0% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.8% | – | 29.2% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 16.6% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | 14.3% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 17.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |