Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 21.9% | – | – | – | – | 50.2% | – | 86.7% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 19.8% | – | – | – | – | 46.7% | – | 85.7% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 16.7% | – | – | – | – | 43.1% | – | 86.0% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 13.2% | – | – | – | – | 38.0% | – | 82.6% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 7.7% | – | – | – | – | 26.7% | – | 71.8% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 4.8% | – | – | – | – | 18.6% | – | 67.5% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 3.2% | – | – | – | – | 14.2% | – | 57.8% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 2.7% | – | – | – | – | 10.7% | – | 56.0% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 2.2% | – | – | – | – | 10.8% | – | 57.1% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 2.0% | – | – | – | – | 9.4% | – | 51.7% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.4% | – | – | – | – | 6.6% | – | 45.2% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 1.1% | – | – | – | – | 5.7% | – | 43.4% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 1.0% | – | – | – | – | 4.4% | – | 36.3% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.2% | – | 34.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | 34.7% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 0.4% | – | – | – | – | 2.6% | – | 29.8% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.7% | – | 29.9% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | 15.0% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | 19.8% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | 8.1% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |