Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).
| Driver | Team | Win | Book | Edge | EV | ½K | Podium | Book | Points | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | RB | 31.6% | – | – | – | – | 62.6% | – | 90.7% | – |
| Lando Norris | MCL | 16.5% | – | – | – | – | 45.3% | – | 88.5% | – |
| Oscar Piastri | MCL | 13.2% | – | – | – | – | 40.4% | – | 85.2% | – |
| George Russell | MERC | 13.0% | – | – | – | – | 39.4% | – | 85.4% | – |
| Charles Leclerc | FERR | 11.8% | – | – | – | – | 36.9% | – | 80.2% | – |
| Fernando Alonso | AM | 3.0% | – | – | – | – | 14.0% | – | 63.7% | – |
| Esteban Ocon | HAAS | 2.3% | – | – | – | – | 10.8% | – | 60.6% | – |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | AUD | 1.9% | – | – | – | – | 10.0% | – | 55.6% | – |
| Oliver Bearman | HAAS | 1.6% | – | – | – | – | 8.0% | – | 53.4% | – |
| Yuki Tsunoda | VCARB | 1.2% | – | – | – | – | 6.6% | – | 48.9% | – |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | MERC | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 4.8% | – | 44.3% | – |
| Lewis Hamilton | FERR | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 5.3% | – | 46.9% | – |
| Isack Hadjar | RB | 0.8% | – | – | – | – | 5.0% | – | 43.8% | – |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | WILL | 0.7% | – | – | – | – | 4.1% | – | 40.9% | – |
| Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | – | 27.7% | – |
| Lance Stroll | AM | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | 25.4% | – |
| Alexander Albon | WILL | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | 1.8% | – | 23.5% | – |
| Nico Hulkenberg | AUD | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | 23.8% | – |
| Franco Colapinto | ALPN | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 5.4% | – |
| Pierre Gasly | ALPN | 0.0% | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | 6.0% | – |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | – | 300.0% | – | 1000.0% | – |