Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R1 race run 100

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
George RussellMERC 66.8% 87.0% 87.3%
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 21.9% 84.5% 88.8%
Charles LeclercFERR 7.9% 67.9% 88.8%
Lando NorrisMCL 1.1% 20.1% 91.3%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 0.8% 14.0% 88.5%
Isack HadjarRB 0.8% 12.5% 88.0%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.7% 13.6% 92.0%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.4% 85.2%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 4.1%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 37.2%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 7.8%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.0% 31.2%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Max VerstappenRB 0.0% 0.0% 35.7%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.1% 76.3%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 53.6%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 43.0%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%