Sim vs Bovada — 2026 R4 race run 103

← projections

Model = our sim. Book = de-vigged Bovada (blank where the market isn't offered). Win totals to ~100% (one winner); podium ~300% (3 spots); points ~1000% (top-10).

DriverTeam WinBookEdgeEV½K PodiumBook PointsBook
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMERC 43.5% 83.7% 88.1%
Max VerstappenRB 31.0% 76.6% 88.4%
Charles LeclercFERR 14.1% 59.6% 89.3%
George RussellMERC 6.3% 42.3% 87.0%
Lando NorrisMCL 3.9% 26.1% 91.5%
Lewis HamiltonFERR 1.1% 10.2% 88.8%
Oscar PiastriMCL 0.1% 1.5% 92.7%
Pierre GaslyALPN 0.0% 0.1% 82.6%
Liam LawsonRB 0.0% 0.0% 76.1%
Franco ColapintoALPN 0.0% 0.0% 80.7%
Oliver BearmanHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 42.4%
Esteban OconHAAS 0.0% 0.0% 8.1%
Carlos Sainz JrWILL 0.0% 0.0% 11.9%
Fernando AlonsoAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Alexander AlbonWILL 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Lance StrollAM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arvid LindbladVCARB 0.0% 0.0% 9.6%
Isack HadjarRB 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Gabriel BortoletoAUD 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Valtteri BottasCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nico HulkenbergAUD 0.0% 0.0% 58.8%
Sergio PerezCAD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL 100.0% 300.0% 1000.0%